Alaska Division of Trade and Development

Seafood Market Overview in Japan

Salmon Market

Recently Nikkan Hokkai Keizai Newspaper reported that Japanese salmon market is being strongly affected by continued increase of production of farmed salmon in Chile. People close to the salmon market in Japan blame the rapid increase of supply of farmed salmon from Chile, which, they say, creates an imbalance in the supply and demand in the Japanese market.

At present, a retail price for salted salmon is about 100 Yen per 100 gram slice or 80 yen per 70-80 gram slice sold. Various surveys of consumers indicate that consumers focus on freshness, seasonality and flavor, with price as least important. However, at present, retailers seem to be focusing on price – quality appears to be second or third for their consideration.

Alaska Sockeye Salmon

According to the FIS Market report, a wholesale price of sockeye salmon is still higher than farmed fish, and the wholesale price of Chilean coho has slipped to $1.13/lb, which would be 58 percent of the sockeye equivalent.

Salmon Import Trends

As shown in the table for salmon and trout imports below, Japan imported 104,179 tons of salmon from Chile during January to August 2001. This is 29,000 tons more than same period of last year. US salmon imports for the accumulated total of January to August 2001 declined by 25% from the same period last year. The US share of Japanese salmon imports for the accumulated total of January to August 2001 is 10.2%.

Salmon & Trout Supply Trends Unit: Metric Ton
			1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000
Sockeye	Import	Wild	100,700	103,600	65,900	42,000	54,800	55,400
	Domestic	Hokkaido	4,530	5,210	8,850	5,000	6,800	3,900
	Total:		105,230	108,810	74,750	47,000	61,600	59,300
Chum	Import	Wild	2,600	4,000	2,000	2,000	9,500	5,500
	Domestic	Hokkaido	14,700	12,420	13,800	14,000	12,500	11,700
	Domestic	Fall salmon	183,200	206,000	183,000	139,000	124,000	108,000
	Total:		200,500	222,420	198,800	155,000	146,000	125,200
Masu (Pink)	Import	Wild	4,500	3,000	8,000	30,000	13,500	6,800
	Domestic	Hokkaido	9,350	5,140	6,430	5,000	5,500	7,100
	Domestic	Japan Sea	3,000	1,190	1,500	3,000	3,000	1,000
	Domestic		15,000	20,700	8,500	13,000	11,000	20,000
	Total:		31,850	30,030	24,430	51,000	33,000	34,900
Coho	Import	Farmed	30,000	38,010	46,800	50,000	47,400	64,100
	Import	Wild	12,000	9,630	3,500	6,000	6,400	3,400
	Domestic	Farmed	14,200	8,580	10,000	8,800	12,000	13,000
	Domestic	Hokkaido	170	510	390	200	800	500
	Total:		56,370	56,730	60,690	65,000	66,600	81,000
King	Import	Farmed	4,250	5,300	3,000	2,800	2,600	2,400
	Import	Wild	4,400	2,200	3,300	1,000	2,000	1,500
	Domestic	Hokkaido	0	0	0	0	0	0
	Total:		8,650	7,500	6,300	3,800	4,600	3,900
Trout	Import	Farmed	29,000	44,100	57,300	60,000	73,500	71,500
Atlantic	Import	Farmed	25,000	28,600	28,000	26,000	39,800	34,200
Grand Total:			456,600	498,190	450,270	407,800	425,100	410,000
Breakdown by Wild/		Wild	354,150	373,600	305,170	260,200	249,800	224,800
	Farmed	Farmed	102,450	124,590	145,100	147,600	175,300	185,200
Breakdown by Domstice/		Domestic	244,150	259,750	232,470	188,000	175,600	165,200
	Import	Import	212,450	238,440	217,800	219,800	249,500	244,800

Share by Species		Sockeye	23.0%	21.8%	16.6%	11.5%	14.5%	14.5%
		Chum	43.9%	44.6%	44.2%	38.0%	34.3%	30.5%
		Masu (Pink)	7.0%	6.0%	5.4%	12.5%	7.8%	8.5%
		Coho	12.3%	11.4%	13.5%	15.9%	15.7%	19.8%
		King	1.9%	1.5%	1.4%	0.9%	1.1%	1.0%
		Trout	6.4%	8.9%	12.7%	14.7%	17.3%	17.4%
		Atlantic	5.5%	5.7%	6.2%	6.4%	9.4%	8.3%
Share by Wild/Farmed		Wild	77.6%	74.9%	67.8%	63.8%	58.8%	54.8%
		Farmed	22.4%	25.1%	32.2%	36.2%	41.2%	45.2%
Share by Domestic/Import		Domestic	53.5%	52.1%	51.6%	46.1%	41.3%	40.3%
		Import	46.5%	47.9%	48.4%	53.9%	58.7%	59.7%
Source: Ministry of Revenue and Reported by Suisan Tsushinsha

Salmon Roe (Ikura) Market

According to Nikkan Hokkai Keizai newspaper, total domestic salmon catch will reach to 200,000 tons, which equal to 15,000 tons of ikura production. Of that production, salted ikura is expected to be 5,700 tons, 1.5 times last year’s 3,600 tons.

However, it is reported that ikura market in Japan is still weak. Some producers in Hokkaido have stopped selling ikura at prices of 3,700 yen to 3,800 yen per kilo. As a result, buyers who expect the price to decrease because of a good salmon catch have had no chance to buy, so far. The producers think that the price is already too low, lower than Alaska’s imported ikura, good grade, No. 1 at 4,000 yen to 4,200 yen per kilo.

This year’s ikura will be oversupplied. Although Alaska’s chum salmon roe production decreases, masu (trout) roe production will increase. And Russian frozen salmon roe will be produced about same as last year.

Pollock Roe Market

According to the recent Nikkan Suisan Keizai Newspaper, a total of nine auctions for pollock roe will be scheduled between October 30^th and November 7^th. This year’s pollock roe production is expected to total about 3,000 tons. Although producers are hoping for high prices like last year, Japanese buyers are seeking lower prices in the auctions. Japanese buyers think the maximum wholesale prices should be between 2,400 yen and 2,500 yen per kilo.

Mad Cow Disease

In September, a cow with mad cow disease was found in Chiba, shocking to all Japanese consumers. Since then, the mad cow scare has swept Japan, slashing beef sales by more than 50 percent and shaking the farm and food industries, and at the same time, outlets indicate sales of fresh fish are good. It is not certain that the strong fresh fish sales are the result of the mad cow disease scare, or the low cost of fresh fish. Also, most retailers do not see any indication for shifting from beef to seafood products at this point while sales of pork and chicken are increasing by 20 percent to 30 percent, according to the recent Nikkan Suisan Keizai Newspaper.

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