Oil prices are currently more than double what they were at this time a year ago, largely due to production cutbacks by OPEC, continuing economic growth in the developed world, and a resurgence of Asian demand for petroleum products. The Department of Revenue's Fall Forecast is for the price of ANS crude to average $20.11 per barrel for FY2000, compared to the FY1999 average of $12.70. This is good news for the fiscal gap, which is projected to decline from over a billion dollars in FY1999 to less than $500 million in FY2000.

The forecast for FY2001 is for prices to decline to $18.28 and remain in that range for the next five years. Due to declining oil production, the fiscal gap in FY2001 is expected to widen to just under $800 million.

For FY2001, investment income of $2.1 billion will be the single largest share of our total state revenues at 33%. Federal revenue is next ($1.7 billion - 27%) and oil revenues third ($1.5 billion - 23%). Strong financial markets are projected to continue, though investment earnings are expected to be quite volatile on a year to year basis. 

Federal revenues have steadily increased over the past several years, a trend projected to continue while our Congressional delegation remains in key positions in the appropriations process. Other non-oil taxes and fees are projected to remain fairly steady at $341 million.

The complete Fall Revenue Forecast by the Department of Revenue can be viewed here.